Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson holds a sizeable lead over his Democratic challenger, according to two new polls.
The latest has Parson leading State Auditor Nicole Galloway by 13 points, with a second survey suggesting he is ahead by 15 percent.
These numbers are in contrast to some commentators suggesting the race may be close, though the lack of hard data and polling on the governor contest had been noted.
According to the recent polls, President Donald Trump has a comfortable lead over Joe Biden in Missouri, with We Ask America reporting the incumbent is ahead by 49 percent to 44. The same pollsters, surveying 500 likely voters, has Parson up by 54 to 31 points.
"Governor Mike Parson holds a very comfortable lead and, barring a major shift in the electorate, is headed towards re-election,” said We Ask America pollster Andrew Weissert.
“Nicole Galloway’s image has dropped significantly and is directly reflected in Parson’s improved ballot.”
In a second poll, by the Trafalgar Group, Parson is ahead of Galloway by 51 to 36, but with quite a number of undecided.
While the Trafalgar Group, which is Republican-leaning, did not respond to requests from the St. Louis Record, its president Robert Cahaly told the National Review magazine that his company has a solid reputation for identifying "hidden voters."
Cahaly told the magazine he believes Trafalgar is right when others were wrong because its surveys “don’t get people who are too interested in politics. We better identify hidden voters.”
“When we talk about hidden voters, what we’re talking about is the social-desirability bias, and that is when people basically tell a live-caller what they think will get them judged least harshly,” says Cahaly.
Professor Peverill Squire, of the University of Missouri's political science department, previously told the St. Louis Record that it is difficult to gauge what sort of challenge Parson is facing because of the lack of data. The only previous poll, in August, had Parson at 50 percent, Galloway at 43.
"I think it is probably right that Parson is the favorite but we do not get a lot of survey information...but bits and pieces would suggest at the moment he enjoys an advantage," said Squire, an expert on American elections and legislatures.
But he added: ""I think she (Galloway) probably enjoys whatever momentum Democrats are generating nationally and there is probably somewhat greater comfort with her in the suburbs than what might normally might be the case."