Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson is probably the favorite to win November's gubernatarial election despite perceived missteps over the special session and potential concerns over his leadership during the COVID-19 outbreak, according to one leading Missouri-based academic.
Professor Peverill Squire, of the University of Missouri's political science department, said it is difficult to gauge what sort of challenge he is facing from State Auditor Nicole Galloway as there is not a lot of survey information available.
Kansas City-based Remington Research Group, a Republican-leaning polling organization, has Parson seven points ahead following a survey of likely voters carried out Aug. 12-13, according to fivethirtyeight.com. The poll has Parson on 50 percent, Galloway on 43. Remington did not respond to requests for comment from the St. Louis Record.
"I think it is probably right that Parson is the favorite but we do not get a lot of survey information...but bits and pieces would suggest at the moment he enjoys an advantage," Squire, an expert on American elections and legislatures, told the St. Louis Record.
"I think she (Galloway) probably enjoys whatever momentum Democrats are generating nationally and there is probably somewhat greater comfort with her in the suburbs than what might normally be the case," Squire added.
On the handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak, the Mizzou professor suspects it might be a weakness for the incumbent, particularly as his "unwillingness to take a state-wide stand on masks, and closing bars and restaurants." However, this position likely will have boosted support among those who believe decisions on dealing with the outbreak are best made at the local level.
"He looks a little bit weak," Squire said, adding that Parson, who landed the role following the resignation of Eric Greitens, does not have a strong track record and there may be concerns about his leadership abilities.
The governor called a special session of the General Assembly, but legislators only dealt with the issue of violent crime, not the impact of the coronavirus on, for example, businesses and municipalities..
"Crime is an issue that Republicans think always works for them," the political expert said. "He comes from a law enforcement background and can tout that as a strength."
Squire believes the special session on crime was a "pretty strong signal" but was "called more for political reasons..than policy."
Parson failed to have some of his proposals passed, with the House voting this week to move a bill forward but one that does not include any measure allowing the attorney general's office to take over control of prosecutions out of St. Louis city.
Another proposal, which would have moved teenagers aged between 14 and 18 into the adult court system if charged with certain gun crimes, was also rejected by the legislature.