Missouri has weathered the economic battering brought about by the pandemic better than was predicted at the outset a year ago, according to a leading economic development expert.
But the damage to some sectors, notably hospitality and leisure, has been huge, according to Alan Spell, an assistant professor in applied social sciences with the University of Missouri's extension program.
Spell, who has tracked the health of businesses over the year, said: "At the start, it was thought it was going to be across the board, that was the sentiment, and many were very much worried about survival.
"I think we fared better, consumer spending held up, apart from leisure and hospitality."
Spell said that some sectors are very strong, including home supplies, while grocery stores are going "gang busters."
According to Opportunity Insights, a Harvard-Brown University economy tracking project, consumer spending in Missouri was up 3.2 percent in mid-February compared to January last year.
This is despite a huge drop in spending on entertainment, everything from sports to movie going, down 67 percent, and a decrease of 17 percent on restaurants and hotels.
Consumer spending numbers do fluctuate, according to the time of the year, and Missouri posted an increase of more than 20 percent in mid-Jannuary, according to Opportunity Insights.
Small business revenues overall have also fluctuated, posting a 30 percent drop in mid-February compared to January, 2020, but reporting a 15 percent decrease the previous month. Leisure and hospitality revenues are down the greatest.
The number of small businesses open compared to just prior to the start of the pandemic is approximately 25 percent less.
But other figures are encouraging, including the recent Census Bureau's Small Business Survey, which reports that applications to start new businesses have increased by 10 percent.
"It is creative destruction with new enterprises, and only three percent were worried about closing," said Spell.
Further census briefings are expected to note this increase in business applications, with e-commerce retail seeing the biggest spike, along with truck driving, which is related, and food services and delivery.
"Entrepreneurs are seeing opportunities where there is a shifting pattern of consumer spending," said Spell. "It is good news, but there is a challenge because it is a different type of business, no big hiring and maybe just a second income for people."
Problems will be persist in low income areas, where a large share depend on the leisure and hospitality sectors, including restaurants, along with administrative services and child care.
"Research has shown that those on lower incomes have been most impacted," said Spell, addng that an uptick will happen in hospitality and leisure but it is not clear when it will be, in May, June or even August. A lot will depend in the vaccine roll out.